On May 21, the official website of the State Food and Drug Administration showed that Eli Lilly's (LLY) blockbuster dual-target drug Tirzepatide injection (Tirzepatide) was approved for marketing in China to improve the treatment of type 2 diabetes in adults. patient's glycemic control. Tilpotide is the world's first dual glucose-dependent insulinotropic peptide (GIP) and glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist, which is injected once a week.
On the day of approval, Eli Lilly's U.S. stocks closed at $803.17 per share, an increase of 2.55%, with a total market value of $763.337 billion. It is reported that in May last year, Eli Lilly's market value exceeded US$400 billion, becoming the world's most valuable pharmaceutical company. This time, the market value reached a new high, allowing Eli Lilly to firmly occupy the position of "number one in market value".
Due to their outstanding weight loss effects, GLP-1 drugs once became star products among weight loss drugs. In 2023, "Science" magazine also named it one of the "Top Ten Scientific Breakthroughs of the Year".
According to statistics, the global GLP-1 market size in 2022 will be approximately US$19.85 billion. From the current point of view, two companies, Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Eli Lilly, occupy 90% of the market in this field, and related indications and market size are also constantly expanding. JPMorgan Chase predicted last year that by 2030, driven by the "duopoly" of Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, annual sales of GLP-1 drugs will exceed $100 billion.
It is worth noting that some trials have shown that tilpotide is more effective than semaglutide in reducing weight. Specific data shows that subjects with 5mg and 10mg of tilpotide reduced their weight by an average of 7.8%. kg, 10.3kg, and the semaglutide 1mg group decreased by an average of 6.2kg.
This means that the approval of Semaglutide, known as the "Internet celebrity weight loss drug", will usher in new competitors in China. Some industry analysts predict that tilpotide may surpass semaglutide to become the highest-selling weight-loss drug within five years.
As Eli Lilly's star drug in the field of GLP-1, tilpotide was approved by the US FDA in May 2022. The indication is to be used in combination with diet and exercise to improve blood sugar control in adults with type 2 diabetes (Mounjaro). Weight loss-related indications (Zepbound) were subsequently approved in the United States in November of the same year.
The sales volume of the drug after its launch was also very impressive. The latest financial report shows that Eli Lilly achieved revenue of US$8.77 billion in the first quarter of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 26%. Tilpotide generated revenue of US$2.324 billion, accounting for 26% of total revenue. Among them, Mounjaro's revenue was US$1.807 billion, an increase of 217%; although Zepbound has been on the market for less than five months, its revenue in the first quarter has reached US$517 million. Non-GAAP earnings per share were $2.58, up 59% from the same period last year and well above market expectations of $2.47 per share.
The company said that thanks to the strong market demand for weight loss, hypoglycemic and other drugs, Lilly has raised its annual revenue and profit expectations, with revenue expected to be between US$42.4 billion and US$43.6 billion in 2024. The revenue was previously expected to be between US$404. In addition, it also raised its guidance for adjusted earnings per share this year from the previous range of 12.2 to 12.7 US dollars to 13.5 to 14 US dollars.
